Divergent Paths: Military Coups and Policy Outcomes in West Africa | RISE Research

This research analyzes why recent military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have led to radical foreign and domestic policy shifts, while Guinea—despite experiencing a similar military takeover—has maintained relative political and economic stability. Using a comparative case study framework, the paper introduces a four-dimensional explanatory model based on colonial legacy, geopolitical positioning, economic resource leverage, and security conditions. Drawing on both primary and secondary sources, it situates the post-coup behavior of these nations within broader debates on neocolonial influence, particularly the enduring impact of Françafrique and the rising wave of anti-French sentiment across the Sahel.

The study finds that structural and contextual factors—not merely regime type—determine post-coup trajectories. Landlocked countries like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso remain more vulnerable to sanctions and regional isolation, compelling them to adopt nationalist, anti-Western policies and realign diplomatically toward Russia, China, and other non-Western actors. In contrast, Guinea’s coastal geography, strategic control over bauxite exports, and early break from French dependency have afforded it greater autonomy and trade resilience. The absence of widespread insurgencies has also shielded it from the security-driven volatility of its Sahelian neighbors.

Ultimately, the paper argues that the stability or volatility following a coup hinges on how historical, economic, and geographic conditions interact with the military regime’s quest for legitimacy. While Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso use foreign policy defiance as a tool of sovereignty restoration, Guinea has pursued pragmatic continuity—balancing nationalist rhetoric with economic diplomacy. In highlighting these contrasts, the study reframes the understanding of post-coup governance in West Africa, emphasizing that structural autonomy and strategic resource control, rather than ideology alone, dictate the extent of political realignment and foreign engagement.